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When Is There Over-Population?
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When Is There Over-Population?
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Population densities on various parts of the earth have become so heavy that serious recognition of the situation and its attendant problems is being forced upon all people who are concerned with thinking and planning in the social field. There is considerable disagreement over definition of terms and human objectives; so in many ways, the problem is confused. But, whatever may be the views and thoughts of others on the subject, the analysis and social objectives of Technocracy are clear and definable.
There appear to be two general views on the subject of over-population, and these are almost diametrically opposed. One view is that held by most scientists and social realists. It contends that many parts of the earth are already too heavily populated, and that the earth as a whole has too many people. These people are inclined to favor birth control programs in at least, the more densely populated sections of the globe.
The contrary view, held most often by disciples of authoritarianism, argues that the earth is not over-populated, and that many more people could be supported than now exist. Supporters of this view even refuse to admit positively that any area is over-populated; although, when they are asked about Japan, Holland, Britain and Italy, among others, they resort to typical evasions. This view is most strongly voiced by the adherents of certain religious cults which hold that there is virtue in having the maximum number of people that can be kept alive on an area.
This latter view is cleverly supported by the scholarly and, in some ways, brilliant work of Josue De Castro, in The Geography of Hunger. The former view is given solid positive support by the careful study and statistical evaluation of Robert Cook and his Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C.
Those who favor immense population densities are extremely limited in their thinking about human needs. They tend to think only in terms of food requirements. Their arguments hover around the concept that, if a person has enough to eat to keep from dying -- or if there is a potential means of supplying them with this minimum amount of nourishment one cannot claim the existence of over-population. They adroitly argue for the encouragement of more billions of people on the earth; through more intensive cultivation and production of food crops, and through a more equitable distribution of the world's food products. They appear to be satisfied if there can be provided an average of half an acre of mediocre arable land for each of the world's inhabitants. Conceivably, a person can be kept from dying on a half acre of moderately productive land, but, what else can he do? Nothing.
The students of population who display a more scientific and appreciative concept of human requirements contend that each person requires a minimum of two acres of good land to supply them with adequate food, fiber and other organic crops.
But, a further insight into the problem reveals that food is not the most difficult and most critical of human requirements; that is, if we are to have any other objective in life than merely not starving to death on a day-to-day basis. Long-term supplies of energy and metals present a more immediate urgency. Even though we ignore the demands and desires of all other people on the earth, we can well ask with apprehension, ``For how long, and from where, will the people of the United States be able to obtain enough petroleum, sulphur, lead, zinc, copper and iron ore to maintain the standard of living of which they now boast?''
Before one can approach the subject of over-population, one must first define the technological stage of development and the general pattern of living to be dealt with.
Most people are satisfied with very little in the way of human comforts and all they require is that those comforts be not too hard to come by. But there is a certain percentage of people in all lands who have a strong urge to seek personal aggrandizement through a conspicuous display of wealth. Those people seek to promote themselves into control of as much of the world's loot and authority as they can acquire, and the exact means of acquiring them are secondary. However, predation and spoilation are the most favored means as these tend to get the most results in the least time, and with less need of personal ability, than any other means.
In any society the self-promoters are the great hazard to the general welfare. They find their greatest satisfaction in reaching a high place in a fascistic order. Any society that is to endure on a stable basis must be so organized that it can keep its self-promoters in check and not debase those who are short on luck or initiative. The ultimate in alternatives would be a King Solomon with his myriads of slaves, a Nizam of Hyderabad with billions of dollars in personal wealth and surrounded by millions of wretched untouchables, or a Hitler with innumerable estates, schlosses and monuments, and slave battalions and death camps.
Food is only one requirement of a population; but the quality and variety of that food are fully as important as the mere quantity. Undernourished or malnourished masses of humanity are no credit to humankind, however they may be regarded by certain spiritual authorities. An adequate diet of tasty, nourishing and vitalizing food in a variety of forms for all of the inhabitants must be considered as a minimum requirement in defining the optimum population load of an area.
Housing is another factor in any standard of living; and, throughout the world there is a deficiency of comfortable housing. Millions of people are without housing of any kind, relying on natural shelters or miscellaneous man-made structures to shield them from the worst of the weather. Other millions live in mere tents, huts and mounds. Before one can appraise an area from the standpoint of maximum allowable population, one must include the capability of providing all the inhabitants with suitable housing, and NOT the type of shoddy, costly houses that are now proliferating the suburbs of North America.
The amount of fresh water also is a potent limiting factor. Lack of water renders huge areas of the earth's surface practically uninhabitable. Until ways and means can be found for increasing the fresh water supply, many areas must remain restricted in their population density. Water is needed for household uses, industrial uses, irrigation and recreation. With an efficient program of water usage, and with restrictions on water wastage, plus conservation and replenishment of available water resources, this average requirement probably could be reduced somewhat for the Continent as a whole, and a greater population (as pertains to this one factor) could be permitted; but, even so, the increase would be finite and limited.
Before it can be claimed that any specific area is NOT over-populated, it must be shown that adequate housing, as well as a healthful diet, can be provided for all the people living there.
Obviously, certain parts of the earth are better suited to a heavier population density than others, especially if one thinks only of the food-producing capacity or some other one factor. But, when considering all the factors which enter into a respectably high standard of living, we find no large area capable of sustaining a huge population on a self- sustaining basis. In order to have a spot as densely populated as New York City, for example, there must be a million square miles of ``back country'' to support it.
Although Technocracy Inc. may view the rest of the world with an analytical and critical eye, it concentrates its specification for a new social order on the North American Continent. Technocracy specifies a high standard of living for the inhabitants of this Continent -- a standard of abundance for all. Thus, Technocracy would impart to human beings a dignity and a standard of comfort and decency that no other organization attempts to approach, even in theory.
So, when Technocracy appraises the area of the Technate of North America from the standpoint of an optimum population, it takes into consideration the capacity of the Continent to sustain a standard of abundance for all of its inhabitants.
Technocracy sees no need for huge battalions of human toilers, hence does not go along with De Castro and others when they pose the need for human workers as an argument in favor of dense population loads. Technocracy recognizes the need for functional personnel to supervise the operation of an area, but does not view the work as being done with human toil. We realize that with the present development of technology and the use of extraneous energy, only a fraction of the existing population of North America is required to operate the social mechanism and that, after the peak demands of the reconstruction period have passed, the future need will be much less.
The criterion for establishing the limits of the allowable population load for this Continent should be the physical ability of the area to maintain that population at a standard of abundance for an indefinite period.
Descending from the above generalities, and applying statistical estimates to the problem, let us answer the question: ``How many people can the Technate area maintain at the standard which Technocracy specifies?'' Considering all the known and probable factors, that number would be in the vicinity of 200 million individuals, plus or minus twenty percent. The lowest figure in this range is the number of people that are needed to operate the Continent without imposing a heavy load of effort upon anyone. The highest figure in this range is the number that can be maintained without placing too much of a burden upon the resources of the Continent.
How is such a policy to be administered? That is secondary; but, we can warn, that any program that relies upon voluntary human self-regulation is doomed to failure. Technocracy merely proposes that scientists of this Continent be put in charge of administering the population control policy.
Once the population problem of North America is resolved on a firm basis, our technically skilled and experienced administrators could offer their services, in an advisory capacity, to other continents whose population problems have been permitted to get out of hand.